Toronto Real Estate Video With Jason Mercer Just Released - March Sales Activity in the GTA
Stunning Whitby Ravine Property!
In-depth Market Outlook for GTA and Durham Region for 2013
Brief, Mild Correction Forecast For Canada's Housing Market In First Half Of 2013
Here is an informative short video about what’s going on in the Toronto Real Estate Market and Durham Region Real Estate Market - Hot off the press!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sZGkZ95Pv0
The Royal LePage House Price Survey (Q4) and 2013 Market Survey Forecast was released to the media early this morning. 
This survey is one of the most respected reports in the industry and will be covered by the media extensively over the next few days.
It sounds self-serving (coming from a Realtor) to say this bodes well for Buyers but increased choice, stable prices and less Buyers in the market is good news for those Buyers willing to negotiate. Keep in mind as you read that this is a National Survey and covers various regions. It may not exemplify circumstances in your town or neighbourhood.
Sellers: watch inventory levels. If they increase substantially you may be competing for Buyers. Keep your expectations realistic. The Survey predicts this environment over the next two years. The Bank of Canada is still concerned with the debt levels Canadians are carrying. Low interest rates will continue to fuel the market but they won’t last forever. If your mortgage is coming due, you may want to explore the 10 year rates as a way to create predictable payments long term.
Here’s a link to the survey
Royal LePage House Price Survey (Q4) and 2013 Market Survey Forecast
TORONTO, January 4, 2013 – Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 3,690 sales through the TorontoMLS system in 
December 2012 – down from 4,585 sales in December 2011. Total sales for 2012 amounted to 85,731 – down from 89,096 transactions in 2011.
“The number of transactions in 2012 was quite strong from a historic perspective. We saw strong year-over-year growth in sales in the first half of the year, but this growth was more than offset by sales declines in the second half. Stricter mortgage lending guidelines resulted in some households postponing their purchase of a home. In the City of Toronto, the dip in sales was compounded by the additional Land Transfer Tax, which buyers must pay upfront,” said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Ann Hannah.
The average selling price in December 2012 was up by 6.5 per cent year-over-year to $478,739. The average selling price for 2012 as a whole was up by almost seven per cent to $497,298.
“Robust annual rates of price growth were reported through most months of 2012. Price growth was strongest for low-rise homes, including singles, semis and townhouses. Despite a dip in sales, market conditions remained tight for these home types with substantial competition between buyers,” said TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis Jason Mercer.
My Take: You would think that a 20% decrease in demand would mean the prices ease instead of increase. So how do prices continue to defy the laws of gravity? It relates to the fact that certain types of housing (not condos) are in shorter supply so demand for those types keeps prices up. This demand and supply changes from market to market, neighbourhood to neighbourhood. That’s why it’s critical to have “local market analysis,” whether you are a Seller of a Buyer.
CTV recently published an article with this title in an interview with Phil Soper, CEO of Royal LePage. He was talking about getting out ahead of the herd of Spring market shoppers. The headline was stupidly conceived, at best! Comments were viral about the pending real estate crash and the absurdity of the concept of Bidding Wars.
The markets have been cooling since June of last year when the Feds brought in changes to the mortgage lending rules. These changes have pushed some buyers to the sidelines. Prices are expected to moderate according to most economists. Conspiracy theorists predict a crash, but then again, they always do!
I don’t think anyone should partake in bidding wars this year. I never liked them (except when working with the Seller because it makes my job easier), buyers don’t like them and agents with buyers don’t like them. Hopefully they’re gone for a while. I want to see a sensible market where Sellers have to price their homes properly and Buyers can take their time and do their diligence when making an Offer.
Inevitably, more home buyers do come out when the weather thaws. What the article is saying is that if you’re a home buyer, getting out ahead of the herd can sometimes offer you more choice and less pressure. This is true in any year. Sellers tend to jack the prices ahead of the Spring market. I don’t think that’s going to work this year.
And how will prices react? It’s expected that fewer buyers will be in the market. However, we also watch the amount of inventory, which I suspect will be lower. With fewer choice, prices tend to hold their own. Time will tell. In the meantime, if you’re a buyer I’ve always said winter and summer are better times to buyer. Leave Spring and Fall to the herds. Take it from a Smart Ass…
Happy Hunting!!
