Toronto Real Estate Video With Jason Mercer Just Released - March Sales Activity in the GTA
Stunning Whitby Ravine Property!
In-depth Market Outlook for GTA and Durham Region for 2013
Brief, Mild Correction Forecast For Canada's Housing Market In First Half Of 2013
This in-depth 23 minute market outlook covers what happened to the real estate market in the Toronto area including Durham Region, and what the outlook is for 2013. This report is interesting and tends to cut through the media frenzy.
Click Here to view the report.
TORONTO, January 4, 2013 – Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 3,690 sales through the TorontoMLS system in 
December 2012 – down from 4,585 sales in December 2011. Total sales for 2012 amounted to 85,731 – down from 89,096 transactions in 2011.
“The number of transactions in 2012 was quite strong from a historic perspective. We saw strong year-over-year growth in sales in the first half of the year, but this growth was more than offset by sales declines in the second half. Stricter mortgage lending guidelines resulted in some households postponing their purchase of a home. In the City of Toronto, the dip in sales was compounded by the additional Land Transfer Tax, which buyers must pay upfront,” said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Ann Hannah.
The average selling price in December 2012 was up by 6.5 per cent year-over-year to $478,739. The average selling price for 2012 as a whole was up by almost seven per cent to $497,298.
“Robust annual rates of price growth were reported through most months of 2012. Price growth was strongest for low-rise homes, including singles, semis and townhouses. Despite a dip in sales, market conditions remained tight for these home types with substantial competition between buyers,” said TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis Jason Mercer.
My Take: You would think that a 20% decrease in demand would mean the prices ease instead of increase. So how do prices continue to defy the laws of gravity? It relates to the fact that certain types of housing (not condos) are in shorter supply so demand for those types keeps prices up. This demand and supply changes from market to market, neighbourhood to neighbourhood. That’s why it’s critical to have “local market analysis,” whether you are a Seller of a Buyer.
drop of 16% over the same period in 2011 and while the December numbers are not yet in, a similar result is expected.Ironically, the average selling price was up by 1.6% annually and the MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) Composite Benchmark (which is the index we really want to pay attention to) was up by 4.6 per cent compared to 2011. “The MLS® HPI detached benchmark price, which tracks the price for a home with the same attributes over time, was up by almost six per cent in Toronto, suggesting that market conditions for low-rise homes remain quite tight despite a changing mix of sales,” according to Jason Mercer, senior TREB analyst.
So is it a Seller’s market, a Buyer’s market or a neutral market? The best way to determine that is to drill down into a particular area, municipality or neighbourhood. When pricing your home it’s critical to know what’s happening right in your neighbourhood. What is the turnover ratio, what’s the percentage of sales to listings among similar homes and price ranges in your area, what’s the average days on market. These stats along with other criteria will help you draw an accurate picture of the LOCAL market and will help you in effectively pricing your home not only to sell, but to sell for the highest possible price the market will bear.
Early this year the Toronto Real Estate Board launched the MLS Home Price Index. It provides a more accurate measure of house prices than the old system because it factors in attributes to create an apples to apples comparison. Square footage, number of bedrooms and bathrooms, age, location and a number of other characteristics are used as standards of measure to make sure the data being compared and compiled is similar in nature. The old system (still being used) simply took all sales of say, detached homes, and didn’t account for any other similarities or differences. So in effect, if you had a month where higher priced homes were selling more than lower price homes, it looked like the average resale price had jumped way up, whereas it only really increased because higher priced home sales skewed the statistics. The Home Price Index provides a more accurate accounting for homes that are comparable in nature.
For Whitby, the Home Price Index as of October 2012 shows a year over increase of Single Family Detached homes of 8.52%. You could say Whitby is in demand. Even more in demand would be Scugog, coming in at 10.34%. This may have a lot to do with the lack of inventory and building restrictions in that area or just the desirability of the communities in the region.
At the end of the day, reporting is becoming more defined and accurate. We like that.
